Childhood correlates and young adult outcomes of trajectories of emotional problems from childhood to adolescence.

Background: Emotional problems, especially anxiety, have become increasingly common in recent generations. Few population-based studies have examined trajectories of emotional problems from early childhood to late adolescence or investigated differences in psychiatric and functional outcomes.

Methods: Using the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children (ALSPAC, = 8286, 50.4% male), we modeled latent class growth trajectories of emotional problems, using the parent-reported Strength and Difficulties Questionnaire emotional scale (SDQ-E) on seven occasions (4-17 years). Psychiatric outcomes in young adulthood (21-25 years) were major depressive disorder (MDD), generalized anxiety disorder (GAD), and self-harm. Functional outcomes were exam attainment, educational/occupational status, and social relationship quality.

Results: We identified four classes of emotional problems: low (67.0%), decreasing (18.4%), increasing (8.9%), and persistent (5.7%) problems. Compared to those in the low class, individuals with decreasing emotional problems were not at elevated risk of any poor adult outcome. Individuals in the increasing and persistent classes had a greater risk of adult MDD (RR: 1.59 95% CI 1.13-2.26 and RR: 2.25 95% CI 1.49-3.41) and self-harm (RR: 2.37 95% CI 1.91-2.94 and RR: 1.87 95% CI 1.41-2.48), and of impairment in functional domains. Childhood sleep difficulties, irritability, conduct and neurodevelopmental problems, and family adversity were associated with a persistent course of emotional problems.

Conclusions: Childhood emotional problems were common, but those whose symptoms improved over time were not at increased risk for adverse adult outcomes. In contrast, individuals with persistent or adolescent-increasing emotional problems had a higher risk of mental ill-health and social impairment in young adulthood which was especially pronounced for those with persistent emotional problems.