The effect of freeze-thaw action on the dynamic change of supra-permafrost water sources: A stable isotope perspective.

Due to the continuous degradation (gradual thawing) of permafrost, supra-permafrost water has become an important component of runoff that occurs in cold regions. However, current research has only focused on the amount of water provided by permafrost, and little has been reported regarding the source and formation mechanisms of supra-permafrost water. Due to the difficulty of observation and sampling in cold regions and insufficient data accumulation, model simulations face various difficulties in regard to solving problems related to hydrological processes. Considering the advantages of stable isotope tracer methods in hydrology, the source of supra-permafrost water in Qilian Mountain was analyzed based on 1,840 samples, and the source of supra-permafrost water was determined by end-member mixing analysis (EMMA). Negative line-conditioned excess (lc-excess), lower slope, and particularly the negative intercept of the evaporation line (EL) indicates strong evaporation effects on supra-permafrost water. Remarkably, the evolutionary process, influencing factors, and relationship with other water bodies all indicate that supra-permafrost water is replenished by precipitation, ground ice meltwater, and snow meltwater. The results indicated that from May to October, the contributions of precipitation to the supra-permafrost water were 79%, 83%, 90%, 84%, 87%, and 83%, respectively. Snow meltwater contributed 11%, 13%, 10%, 16%, 11%, and 9%, respectively. Permafrost degradation impacts the water cycle and can increase the minimum monthly runoff and increase groundwater storage. To mitigate the effects of this change, monitoring and early warning systems are essential for detecting signs of permafrost degradation in a timely manner so that appropriate measures can be taken. This may involve the use of remote-sensing technologies, sensor networks, and other methods for real-time monitoring. Establishing mechanisms for sharing information with the relevant departments is crucial. The research results provide scientific and technological support and aid in decision-making to mitigate the negative effects of continuous permafrost degradation in a changing environment.