A nomogram based on clinical characteristics and nutritional indicators for relative and absolute weight loss during radiotherapy in initially inoperable patients with locally advanced esophageal squamous cell carcinoma.

Objective: Radiation for locally advanced esophageal squamous cell carcinoma often is accompanied by radiation esophagitis, which interferes with oral intake. We aimed to develop a nomogram model to identify initially inoperable patients with relative and absolute weight loss who need prophylactic nutritional supplementation.

Methods: A total of 365 initially inoperable patients with locally advanced esophageal squamous cell carcinoma receiving radiotherapy between January 2018 and December 2022 were included in the study, which was divided into discovery and validation cohorts. Receiver operating characteristic and Kaplan-Meier curve analyses were performed to compare the areas under the curve and survival benefits.

Results: A total of 42.2% (154 of 365) of the patients had been diagnosed with cancer cachexia. The malnourished group had a higher interruption rate of radiotherapy and number of complication diseases (P < 0.05). Meanwhile, patients with malnutrition had lower lymphocytes and prognostic nutritional index (P < 0.05). The combined index showed a higher area under the curve value (0.67; P < 0.001) than number of complication diseases (area under the curve = 0.52) and prognostic nutritional index (area under the curve = 0.49) for relative weight loss (≥ 5%). Similarly, the combined index had a higher area under the curve value (0.79; P < 0.001) than number of complication diseases (area under the curve = 0.56), treatment regimens (area under the curve = 0.56), subcutaneous fat thickness (area under the curve = 0.60), pretreatment body weight (area under the curve = 0.61), neutrophils (area under the curve = 0.56), and prognostic nutritional index (area under the curve = 0.50) for absolute weight loss (≥ 5 kg). Absolute and relative weight loss remained independent prognostic factors, with short overall survival rates compared with the normal group (P < 0.05). Patients with high nomogram scores supported by nutritional intervention had less weight loss, better nutrition scores, and increased plasma CD8+ T cells, and interferon gamma.

Conclusions: We developed a nomogram model that was intended to estimate relative and absolute weight loss in initially inoperable patients with locally advanced esophageal squamous cell carcinoma during radiotherapy, which might help facilitate an objective decision on prophylactic nutritional supplementation.