The Caribbean region is prone to the strong winds and low air pressures of tropical cyclones and their corresponding storm surge that driving coastal flooding. To protect coastal communities from the impacts of tropical cyclones, it is important to understand how this impact of tropical cyclones might change towards the future. This study applies the storyline approach to show what tropical cyclones Maria (2017) and Dorian (2019) could look like in a 2 °C and 3.4 °C warmer future climate. These two possible future climates are simulated with a high-resolution regional climate model using the pseudo global warming approach. Using the climate response from these simulations we apply a Delta-quantile mapping technique to derive future changes in wind speed and mean sea level pressure. We apply this Delta technique to tropical cyclones Maria and Dorian's observed wind and pressure fields to force a hydrodynamic model for simulating storm surge levels under historical and future climate conditions. Results show that the maximum storm surge heights of Maria and Dorian could increase by up to 0.31 m and 0.56 m, respectively. These results clearly show that future changes in storm surge heights are not negligible compared to end-of-the-century sea level rise projections, something that is sometimes overlooked in large-scale assessments of future coastal flood risk.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-023-49685-y | DOI Listing |
Sci Bull (Beijing)
December 2024
Department of Ocean Science and Engineering, Southern University of Science and Technology, Shenzhen 518055, China. Electronic address:
How tropical cyclone (TC) activity varies in response to a changing climate is widely debated. The accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) is one of the indicators of TC activity and has attracted considerable attention because of its close relationship with the damages caused by TCs. Previous studies have focused on detecting long-term trends in global ACE; however, the results are inconclusive.
View Article and Find Full Text PDFAm J Biol Anthropol
January 2025
Primate Models for Behavioural Evolution Lab, Institute of Human Sciences, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.
Objectives: With contemporary, human-induced climate change at a crisis point, extreme weather events (e.g., cyclones, heatwaves, floods) are becoming more frequent, intense, and difficult to predict.
View Article and Find Full Text PDFNat Med
January 2025
Department of Environmental Health Sciences, Mailman School of Public Health, Columbia University, New York, NY, USA.
Flooding greatly endangers public health and is an urgent concern as rapid population growth in flood-prone regions and more extreme weather events will increase the number of people at risk. However, an exhaustive analysis of mortality following floods has not been conducted. Here we used 35.
View Article and Find Full Text PDFSci Rep
January 2025
Division of Earth and Environmental System Sciences, Department of Oceanography, Pukyong National University, 45 Yongso-ro, Nam-gu, 48513, Busan, Republic of Korea.
This study explores carbon sequestration in South Korea's riverine wetlands, focusing on the four major rivers: Han, Yeongsan, Geum, and Nakdong. Field data from the Yeongsan River wetland, including 3D topography surveys, grainsize analyses, and loss-on-ignition measurements, were used to assess carbon stocks and their environmental drivers. The Yeongsan River was selected as a representative site due to its geomorphological, hydrological, and climatic similarities with the other three major rivers, which influence sediment transport and carbon dynamics.
View Article and Find Full Text PDFSci Rep
December 2024
Weather Program Office, Ocean and Atmospheric Research, NOAA, Silver Spring, MD, USA.
Tropical cyclone risks are expected to increase with climate change. One such risk is extreme ocean waves generated by surface winds from these systems. We use synthetic databases of both historical (1980-2017) and future (2015-2050) tropical cyclone tracks to generate wind fields and force a computationally efficient wave model to estimate significant wave heights across all global tropical cyclone basins.
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