[Cost-effectiveness analysis of a vaccine for Helicobacter pylori in southern Europe].

Objective: There is sufficient evidence on the feasibility of a vaccine to prevent Helicobacter pylori infection. Modeling studies in low prevalence environments report a very probable long-term cost-effectiveness. The objective of this study was to quantify its efficiency in a local context.

Methods: The evolution of a cohort of newborns was simulated through a compartmental model representing a series of clinical situations regarding H. pylori infection and related diseases. The model was run under the assumption of both vaccination in the first year of life and no intervention. The time horizon was set as equivalent to the life expectancy and the perspective of the health system was taken into account.

Results: Vaccination against H. pylori would cost an average of €2,168/person more than no intervention. This would yield an average additional 0.32 quality-adjusted life years gained (QALY), which would entail an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of €7,196/QALY. For a willingness to pay of €24,506/QALY, 99.96% of the simulations were cost-effective at eighty-four years old. This threshold was crossed thirty years after vaccination. The variables that carried the most weight in explaining the variability of the ICER were, in this order, vaccine effectiveness, the incidence of infection in young children, and the price of the vaccine. Vaccination would cease to be cost-effective with a price greater than €3,634/dose or with effective population coverage less than 11%.

Conclusions: When implemented in an environment with the epidemiological and economic characteristics of Southern Europe, a prophylactic vaccination against H. pylori would be cost-effective in the long run.