CT-based radiomics models predict spontaneous intracerebral hemorrhage expansion and are comparable with CT angiography spot sign.

Background And Purpose: This study aimed to investigate the efficacy of radiomics, based on non-contrast computed tomography (NCCT) and computed tomography angiography (CTA) images, in predicting early hematoma expansion (HE) in patients with spontaneous intracerebral hemorrhage (SICH). Additionally, the predictive performance of these models was compared with that of the established CTA spot sign.

Materials And Methods: A retrospective analysis was conducted using CT images from 182 patients with SICH. Data from the patients were divided into a training set (145 cases) and a testing set (37 cases) using random stratified sampling. Two radiomics models were constructed by combining quantitative features extracted from NCCT images (the NCCT model) and CTA images (the CTA model) using a logistic regression (LR) classifier. Additionally, a univariate LR model based on the CTA spot sign (the spot sign model) was established. The predictive performance of the two radiomics models and the spot sign model was compared according to the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC).

Results: For the training set, the AUCs of the NCCT, CTA, and spot sign models were 0.938, 0.904, and 0.726, respectively. Both the NCCT and CTA models demonstrated superior predictive performance compared to the spot sign model (all < 0.001), with the performance of the two radiomics models being comparable ( = 0.068). For the testing set, the AUCs of the NCCT, CTA, and spot sign models were 0.925, 0.873, and 0.720, respectively, with only the NCCT model exhibiting significantly greater predictive value than the spot sign model ( = 0.041).

Conclusion: Radiomics models based on NCCT and CTA images effectively predicted HE in patients with SICH. The predictive performances of the NCCT and CTA models were similar, with the NCCT model outperforming the spot sign model. These findings suggest that this approach has the potential to reduce the need for CTA examinations, thereby reducing radiation exposure and the use of contrast agents in future practice for the purpose of predicting hematoma expansion.