[Potential Ecological Risk Characteristics and Source Apportionment of Heavy Metals in Farmland Soils around Typical Factories in Hunan Province Based on Monte-Carlo Simulation].

In order to explore the pollution characteristics， ecological risks， and pollution sources of heavy metals in farmland soils around typical factories in Hunan Province， the content characteristics of eight heavy metals in farmland soils around fluoride factories， leather factories， and plating plants were analyzed. The geo-accumulation index and potential ecological risk index were used to evaluate the pollution and environmental risk of heavy metals. The correlation analysis， hierarchical cluster analysis， and principal component analysis were used to analyze the sources of heavy metals. The Monte-Carlo model was used to evaluate the probability risk of regional ecological risk. The results showed that the main pollution elements in the soil were Cd and Zn， and their mean values were 4.46 and 2.73 times the background values， respectively. Zn was at a mild pollution level in the soil of the three typical factories， and Cd was at a moderate pollution level in the whole fluoride factory. The pollution sources of heavy metals in the typical factories were mainly natural sources， industrial activity sources （industrial waste discharge， mineral mining， and smelting activities）， traffic sources， etc. The results of potential ecological risk assessment showed that the ecological risk of the fluoride factory was at a high risk level， and the ecological risk of the leather factory and plating plants was at a high risk level. Cd was the main contributing element. The results of Monte-Carlo probabilistic ecological risk assessment reduced the uncertainty of deterministic assessment， which could provide scientific basis for accurate risk management and control in the regions.