Prediction of potential distributions of and in China.

Changes in the habitats of species can provide insights into the impact of climate change on their habitats. Species in the genus (Morinoideae) are perennial herbaceous plants that are mainly distributed in the South Asian Mountains and Eastern Mediterranean. In China, there are four species and two varieties of this genus distributed across the Yunnan, Sichuan, Qinghai, and Gansu provinces. This study used the optimal MaxEnt model to simulate past, current, and future potentially suitable habitats of and . Seventy data of occurrences and 3 of were used in the model to predict potentially suitable habitats. The model prediction results indicated that both and exhibited trends of northward migration to higher latitudes and westward migration along the Himalayas to higher elevations, suggesting that the northern valleys of Hengduan Mountains and northern and eastern parts of the Himalayas were potential refugia for , and the potential refugia for was located in the eastern part of Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. The results of this niche analysis showed that the two species had higher levels of interspecific competition and that the environmental adaptability of was stronger. This research could help further understand the response pattern of to environmental change, to understand the adaptability of species to the environment, and promote the protection of species.