Long-term survival analysis of ultrasound-guided percutaneous microwave ablation for hepatocellular carcinoma conforming to the Milan criteria: primary versus recurrent HCC.

Background: This study compared long-term outcomes between patients with initial hepatocellular carcinoma (IHCC) and those with recurrent HCC (RHCC) treated with microwave ablation (MWA).

Methods: This retrospective study included 425 patients with HCCs (294 IHCCs and 131 RHCCs) within the Milan criteria who were treated with ultrasound-guided percutaneous MWA between January 2008 and November 2021. All patients with RHCC had previously undergone MWA for initial HCC. Overall survival (OS) and recurrence-free survival (RFS) rates were compared between the IHCC and RHCC groups before and after propensity score matching (PSM).

Results: Before matching, the 1-, 3-, 5-, and 10-year OS rates in the IHCC group were 95.9%, 78.5%, 60.2%, and 42.5%, respectively, which were significantly higher than those in the RHCC group (93.8%, 70.0%, 42.0%, and 6.6%, respectively). This difference remained significant after PSM. However, subgroup analyses suggested that there were no significant differences in OS rates between IHCC and RHCC in patients with solitary HCC ≤3.0 cm, AFP ≤200 ng/mL, ablative margins ≥0.5 cm, or Albumin-Bilirubin (ALBI) grade 1. RFS was significantly higher in IHCC than in RHCC before and after PSM, as well as in subgroup analyses. ALBI grade (hazard ratio (HR), 2.38; 95% CI: 1.46-3.86;  < 0.001), serum AFP level (HR, 2.07; 95% CI: 1.19-3.62;  = 0.010) and ablative margins (HR, 0.18; 95% CI: 0.06-0.59;  = 0.005) were independent prognostic factors for OS of RHCC. Serum AFP(HR, 1.29; 95% CI: 1.02-1.63, = 0.036) level was the only factor associated with RFS in RHCC.

Conclusions: MWA yielded comparable OS in IHCC and RHCC patients with solitary HCC ≤3.0 cm, AFP ≤200 ng/mL, ablative margins ≥0.5 cm, or ALBI grade 1.