Contributions of early detection and cancer prevention to colorectal cancer mortality reduction by screening colonoscopy: a validated modeling study.

Background And Aims: Screening colonoscopy, recommended every 10 years, reduces mortality from colorectal cancer (CRC) by early detection of prevalent but undiagnosed CRC, as well as by removal of precursor lesions. The aim of this study was to assess the relative contribution of both components to total CRC mortality reduction over time.

Methods: Using a validated multistate Markov model, we simulated hypothetical cohorts of 100,000 individuals aged 55 to 64 years with and without screening at baseline. Main outcomes included proportions of prevented CRC deaths arising from (asymptomatic) CRC already present at baseline and from newly developed CRC during 15 years of follow-up, and mortality rate ratios of screened versus nonscreened groups over time.

Results: Early detection of prevalent cases accounted for 52%, 30%, and 18% of deaths prevented by screening colonoscopy within 5, 10, and 15 years, respectively. Relative reduction of mortality was estimated to be much larger for mortality from incident cancers than for mortality from cancers that were already present and detected early at screening endoscopy and for total CRC mortality (ie, 88% versus 67% and 79%, respectively, within 10 years from screening).

Conclusions: Reduction of CRC mortality mainly arises from early detection of prevalent cancers during the early years after screening colonoscopy, but prevention of incident cases accounts for the majority of prevented deaths in the longer run. Prevention of incident cases leads to sustained strong reduction of CRC mortality, possibly warranting an extension of screening intervals.