Mental health in Ireland during the Covid pandemic: Evidence from two longitudinal surveys.

Background: The Covid pandemic arrived in Ireland on February 29, 2020. In the following weeks various restrictions were introduced to stem the spread of the disease. Anxiety over the spread of the disease and over the restrictions introduced had an adverse effect upon mental health. This study examines the change in mental health for two groups: young adults aged around 23 at the time of onset of Covid (the 1998 cohort) and a sample of principal carers (PCs) of children who were aged 13 at the onset of Covid (the 2008 cohort).

Methods: Data were obtained from the two cohorts of the longitudinal Growing Up In Ireland (GUI) survey. The sample included 1953 young adults (from the 1998 cohort) and 3547 principal carers (from the 2008 cohort). Mental health as measured by the Centre for Epidemiological Studies Depression-8 scale was obtained for the last pre-Covid wave and for the Covid wave (surveyed in December 2020). Observations for which CES-D8 was not available in either pre or post Covid waves were excluded. Post-Covid sampling weights were applied. The change in depression rates was decomposed into a growth and distribution effect using a Shapley decomposition. The socioeconomic gradient of CES-D8 was examined pre and post Covid using concentration indices and a transition matrix was constructed to examine the dynamics of changes in CES-D8 and depression pre and post-Covid.

Results: Relative to the last pre-Covid survey, mental health, as measured by CES-D8 deteriorated for both the young adults of the 1998 cohort and the PCs of the 2008 cohort. For young adults, the deterioration was more pronounced for females. There was no observable socioeconomic gradient for poor mental health amongst young adults, both pre and post Covid. For mothers from the 2008 cohort, a gradient was observed during the pre-COVID-19 pandemic period with poorer mental health status for lower-income and less educated mothers. This gradient was less pronounced post-Covid, the levelling-off arising from a greater deterioration in mental health for higher-income and better-educated PCs.

Conclusion: Both observed cohorts showed a significant deterioration in mental health post Covid. For young adults the effect was significantly more pronounced among females and this is consistent with generally poorer mental health amongst females in this age group. There was little or no socioeconomic gradient observed for young adults, but the gradient became more shallow for principal carers. Care must be taken in terms of drawing policy implications from this study as the Covid-19 pandemic was arguably a unique event, even allowing for the likelihood of future pandemics. However, the study highlights the vulnerability of young adults, especially females, to the mental health effects arising from major public health shocks.