Predicting Flare in Patients With Rheumatoid Arthritis in Biologic Induced Remission, on Tapering, and on Stable Therapy.

Objective: The tapering of biologic disease-modifying antirheumatic drug (b-DMARD) therapy for patients with rheumatoid arthritis (RA) in stable remission is frequently undertaken, but specific guidance on how to successfully taper is lacking. The objective of this study is to identify predictors of flare in patients in stable b-DMARD-induced clinical remission, who did or did not follow structured b-DMARD tapering.

Methods: Patients with RA receiving b-DMARD treatment who had achieved sustained remission according to a Disease Activity Score in 28 joints using the C-reactive protein level (DAS28-CRP) <2.6 for ≥6 months were offered tapering. Clinical, ultrasound (US) (total power Doppler [PD]/grayscale abnormalities), CD4 T cell subsets, and patient-reported outcomes (PROs) were collected at inclusion. The primary endpoint was the occurrence of flare (loss of DAS28-CRP remission) over 12 months. Logistic regression analyses identified predictors of flare. Dichotomization into high/low-risk groups was based on 80% specificity using the area under the receiving operator curve (AUROC).

Results: Of 63 patients choosing tapering, 23 (37%) flared compared with 12 of 60 (20%) on stable treatment (P = 0.043). All patients who flared regained remission upon reinstating treatment. In the tapering group, flare was associated with lower regulatory T cell (Treg) (P < 0.0001) and higher CRP levels (P < 0.0001), erythrocyte sedimentation rate (P < 0.035), and inflammation-related cells (IRCs) (P = 0.054); stepwise modeling selected Tregs (odds ratio [OR] = 0.350, P = 0.004), IRCs (OR = 1.871, P = 0.007), and CRP level (OR = 1.577, P = 0.004) with 81.7% accuracy and AUROC = 0.890. In the continued therapy group, modeling retained the tender joint count, total PD, and visual analog scale pain score, with 82.1% accuracy and AUROC = 0.899. Most patients in the study were considered low risk of flare (80 of 123 patients [65%]). Only 5 of 37 (13.5%) of the low-risk patients who tapered flared, which was notable compared with the continued therapy group (20% flare).

Conclusion: Flare on tapering b-DMARDs was predicted by lower Tregs and elevated inflammation biomarkers (IRCs/CRP level); flare on continued b-DMARDs was associated with raised pain parameters and US inflammation. Knowledge of these biomarkers should improve outcomes by targeted selection for tapering, and by increased monitoring of those on continued therapy predicted to flare.