[Relationship between serum procalcitonin level and severity and prognosis in patients with traumatic brain injury in plateau areas].

Objective: To analyze the changes rule of serum procalcitonin (PCT) levels in patients with traumatic brain injury in plateau areas, and to evaluate its value in assessing the severity and prognosis of the patients.

Methods: A prospective cohort study was conducted. The patients with traumatic brain injury admitted to the critical care medicine departments of Xining Third People's Hospital (at an altitude of 2 260 metres) and Golmud City People's Hospital (at an altitude of 2 780 metres) from May 2018 to September 2022 were enrolled. According to the Glasgow coma scale (GCS) score at admission, the patients were divided into mild injury group (GCS score 13-15), severe injury group (GCS score 9-12), and critical injury group (GCS score 3-8). All patients received active treatment. Chemiluminescence immunoassay was used to measure the serum PCT levels of patients on the 1st, 3rd, 5th, and 7th day of admission. The Kendall tau-b correlation method was used to analyze the correlation between serum PCT levels at different time points and the severity of the disease. The patients were followed up until October 30, 2022. The prognosis of the patients was collected. The baseline data of patients with different prognosis were compared. The Cox regression method was used to analyze the relationship between baseline data, serum PCT levels at different time points and prognosis. Receiver operator characteristic curve (ROC curve) was drawn to analyze the predictive value of serum PCT levels at different time points for death during follow-up.

Results: Finally, a total of 120 patients with traumatic brain injury were enrolled, including 52 cases in the mild injury group, 40 cases in the severe injury group, and 28 cases in the critical injury group. The serum PCT levels of patients in the mild injury group showed a continuous downward trend with the prolongation of admission time. The serum PCT levels in the severe injury and critical injury groups reached their peak at 3 days after admission, and were significantly higher than those in the mild injury group (μg/L: 3.53±0.68, 4.47±0.63 vs. 0.40±0.14, both P < 0.05), gradually decreasing thereafter, but still significantly higher than the mild injured group at 7 days. Kendall tau-b correlation analysis showed that there was a significant positive correlation between serum PCT levels on days 1, 3, 5, and 7 of admission and the severity of disease (r value was 0.801, 0.808, 0.766, 0.528, respectively, all P < 0.01). As of October 30, 2022, 92 out of 120 patients with traumatic brain injury survived and 28 died, with a mortality of 23.33%. Compared with the survival group, the GCS score, serum interleukin-6 (IL-6) levels, white blood cell count (WBC) in peripheral blood, and PCT levels in cerebrospinal fluid at admission in the death group were significantly increased [GCS score: 5.20±0.82 vs. 4.35±0.93, IL-6 (ng/L): 1.63±0.45 vs. 0.95±0.27, blood WBC (×10/L): 14.31±2.03 vs. 11.95±1.98, PCT in cerebrospinal fluid (μg/L): 11.30±1.21 vs. 3.02±0.68, all P < 0.01]. The serum PCT levels of patients in the survival group showed a continuous downward trend with prolonged admission time. The serum PCT level in the death group peaked at 3 days after admission and was significantly higher than that in the survival group (μg/L: 4.11±0.62 vs. 0.52±0.13, P < 0.01), gradually decreasing thereafter, but still significantly higher than the survival group at 7 days. Cox regression analysis showed that serum IL-6 levels [hazard ratio (HR) = 17.347, 95% confidence interval (95%CI) was 5.874-51.232], WBC in peripheral blood (HR = 1.383, 95%CI was 1.125-1.700), PCT levels in cerebrospinal fluid (HR = 1.952, 95%CI was 1.535-2.482) at admission and serum PCT levels on admission days 1, 3, 5, and 7 [HR (95%CI) was 6.776 (1.844-24.906), 1.840 (1.069-3.165), 3.447 (1.284-9.254), and 6.666 (1.214-36.618), respectively] were independent risk factors for death during follow-up in patients with traumatic brain injury (all P < 0.05). ROC curve analysis showed that the AUC of serum PCT levels on days 1, 3, 5, and 7 for predicting death during follow-up in patients with traumatic brain injury was all > 0.8 [AUC (95%CI) was 0.898 (0.821-0.975), 0.800 (0.701-0.899), 0.899 (0.828-0.970), 0.865 (0.773-0.958), respectively], indicating ideal predictive value. The optimal cut-off value for serum PCT level at 3 days of admission was 1.88 μg/L, with the sensitivity of 78.6% and specificity of 88.0% for predicting death during follow-up.

Conclusions: Abnormal expression of serum PCT levels in patients with traumatic brain injury on the 3rd day of admission was found. The serum PCT levels greater than 3 μg/L may be related to severe illness. The serum PCT levels greater than 1.88 μg/L can predict the poor prognosis of patients. Dynamic observation of changes in serum PCT levels has good evaluation value for the severity and prognosis of patients with traumatic brain injury in plateau areas.