The impacts of exposure to risk factors during youth on the increasing global trend of early-onset pancreatic cancer.

Objectives: An increasing trend of pancreatic cancer in young adults has emerged in some countries. This study aimed to investigate global trends of pancreatic cancer in young adults and explore the impact of exposure to risk factors on pancreatic cancer incidence during youth.

Methods: Global and national data on pancreatic cancer incidence, disability-adjusted life-years, attributive mortality, and summary exposure values of risk factors were retrieved from the Global Burden of Disease 2019. The average annual percent change (AAPC) of incidence and mortality was calculated. Additionally, generalized additive models were applied to explore the non-linear associations between the levels and changes in the Human Development Index and AAPC.

Results: Global pancreatic cancer incidence increased during various periods from 1990 to 2019, particularly in adults aged <45 years from 2010 to 2019, at an average annual increase rate of 0.7% (95% confidence interval: 0.4-1.0%). The AAPC of early-onset pancreatic cancer incidence from 2010 to 2019 was negatively correlated with Human Development Index levels in both 2010 and 2019 but positively correlated with Human Development Index acceleration. Significant increases in early-onset pancreatic cancer incidence were observed over this period in 32 of 88 countries, primarily in South America, North America, Oceania, and Africa. Early-onset pancreatic cancer mortality attributed to high body mass index and fasting plasma glucose increased, while that attributed to tobacco use declined.

Conclusions: An increasing trend has emerged in the global incidence and burden of early-onset pancreatic cancer over the last few decades. This rise may partly be attributed to global epidemics of high body mass index and fasting plasma glucose.