Species distribution models to predict the impacts of environmental disasters on shrimp species of economic interest.

Here, we used distribution models to predict the size of the environmentally suitable area for shrimps of fishing interest that were impacted by the tailing plume from the collapse of the Fundão Dam, one of the largest ecological disasters ever to occur in Brazil. Species distribution models (SDMs) were generated for nine species of penaeid shrimp that occurred in the impacted region. Average temperature showed the highest percentage of contribution for SDMs. The environmental suitability of penaeids varied significantly in relation to the distance to the coast and mouth river. The area of environmental suitability of shrimps impacted by tailings plumes ranged from 27 to 47 %. Notably, three protected areas displayed suitable conditions, before the disaster, for until eight species. The results obtained by the SDMs approach provide crucial information for conservation and restoration efforts of coastal biodiversity in an impacted region with limited prior knowledge about biodiversity distribution.