Development of a Prediction Model to Identify the Risk of Infection in Hospitalized Patients Receiving at Least One Dose of Antibiotics.

Objective: This study's objective was to develop a risk-prediction model to identify hospitalized patients at risk of Clostridioides difficile infection (CDI) who had received at least one dose of systemic antibiotics in a large tertiary hospital.

Patients And Methods: This was a retrospective case-control study that included patients hospitalized for more than 2 days who received antibiotic therapy during hospitalization. The study included two groups: patients diagnosed with hospital CDI and controls without hospital CDI. Cases were matched 1:3 with assigned controls by age and sex. Descriptive statistics were used to identify the study population by comparing cases with controls. Continuous variables were stated as the means and standard deviations. A multivariate analysis was built to identify the significantly associated covariates between cases and controls for CDI.

Results: A total of 364 patients were included and distributed between the two groups. The control group included 273 patients, and the case group included 91 patients. The risk factors for CDI were investigated, with only significant risks identified and included in the risk assessment model: age older than 70 years ( = 0.034), chronic kidney disease ( = 0.043), solid organ transplantation ( = 0.021), and lymphoma or leukemia ( = 0.019). A risk score of ≥2 showed the best sensitivity, specificity, and accuracy of 78.02%, 45.42%, and 78.02, respectively, with an area under the curve of 0.6172.

Conclusion: We identified four associated risk factors in the risk-prediction model. The tool showed good discrimination that might help predict, identify, and evaluate hospitalized patients at risk of developing CDI.