Noticeable effect of lower baseline amplitude on the predictive accuracy of intraoperative amplitude changes for postoperative vocal cord palsy: a prospective cohort study.

Background: To explore the effect of lower baseline amplitude on its predictive accuracy of postoperative vocal cord paralysis (VCP) in monitored thyroid surgery.

Materials And Methods: Clinical and electrophysiological data were collected during thyroid surgeries performed between November and December 2021 at China-Japan Union Hospital. Univariate/multivariate regression analysis were applied to these data to examine a possible correlation. A receiver operating characteristic curve was used to evaluate predictive efficacy.

Results: A total of 631 nerves-at-risk (NAR) were identified in 460 patients who were divided into two groups according to postoperative development of VCP. The VCP group included a higher percentage of NAR with V1<1000 (68.2 vs. 40.7%, respectively; P =0.014) and NAR with R1<1400 (77.3 vs. 47.0%, respectively; P =0.005) compared with the non-VCP group. Multivariate regression analysis further identified V1<1000 [odds ratio (OR)=2.688, P =0.038], R1<1400 (OR=3.484, P =0.018) as independent risk factors for postoperative temporary VCP. The receiver operating characteristic curve showed the AUC value of V signal decline for predicting VCP was 0.87. The diagnostic efficiency of R signal decline reached as high as 0.973. A multivariate logistic regression analysis identified independent risk factors for V1<1000 and these included: higher BMI (OR=1.072, P =0.013), hypertension (OR=1.816, P =0.015), smoking (OR=1.814, P =0.031), and male sex (OR=2.016, P =0.027).

Conclusion: In our cohort, lower baseline amplitude was an independent risk factor for developing transient postoperative VCP. It also affected the predictive efficacy of intraoperative amplitude changes on VCP. Higher BMI, hypertension, smoking, and male sex may also be closely associated with lower initial amplitude. Thus, maintaining a higher initial amplitude is critical for patient safety during thyroid surgery.