Incidence and Risk Factor of Hepatocellular Carcinoma Recurrence After Liver Transplant: Results From a Single Clinic.

Objectives: Although liver transplant is highly effective for early-stage hepatocellular carcinoma, guidance on tailored posttransplant management to optimize outcomes is lacking. We examined the incidence and pretransplant radiological scans and indicators of tumor marker associated with posttransplant hepatocellular carcinoma recurrence.

Materials And Methods: We reviewed outcomes of 34 hepatocellular carcinoma candidates aged ≥18 years who underwent living-donor liver transplant between January 2016 and January 2023. The primary outcome was biopsy-proven posttransplant hepatocellular carcinoma recurrence at any site. We used Kaplan-Meier analysis to calculate cumulative incidence and Cox regression to identify predictors of posttransplant hepatocellular carcinoma recurrence.

Results: Among 34 transplant candidates, median age was 44 years, 84% had hepatitis C, median laboratory Model for End-Stage Liver Disease score was 18, and median pretransplant α-fetoprotein level was 235 ng/dL. From imaging scans pretransplant, 74% of candidates met Milan criteria. Median wait time to transplant was 67 days, and 23% received pretransplant locoregional therapy. Seven (20.5%) had hepatocellular carcinoma recurrence after median of 1.4 years, with cumulative incidences of 4 (11.7%) and 3 (8.8%) at 1 and 2 years posttransplant. Pretransplant number of lesions (P = .015), largest lesion diameter (P = .008), and higher amount of tumor markers (P = .002) were significant predictors of hepatocellular carcinoma recurrence after adjusting for pretransplant locoregional therapy and wait time. Posttransplant hepatocellular carcinoma recurrence (P < .001) and higher amount of tumor markers (P = .029) were associated with lower posttransplant survival.

Conclusions: Risk of hepatocellular carcinoma recurrence was significantly associated with the number and size of lesions at the time of livingdonor liver transplant and amount of tumor markers. Risk stratification using a predictive model for posttransplant hepatocellular carcinoma recurrence based on pretransplant imaging and tumor markers may help guide candidate selection and tailoring of hepatocellular carcinoma surveillance strategy after living-donor liver transplant.