The distribution structure of medical and care resources based on regional characteristics throughout Japan in 2020.

Background: Given Japan's rapidly aging population, the Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare's policy of reducing hospital beds and replacing medical care with nursing care requires the establishment of a coordinated system of medical and care services tailored to regional characteristics. To gain useful knowledge for the development of such a system, this study aimed to identify differences in the structure of the relationship between medical and care resources due to differences in regional characteristics.

Methods: Initially, regional characteristics were used to group all 334 secondary medical areas (SMA) in Japan by principal component analysis. Subsequently, the related structure of the distribution of medical and care resources for each group were compared. For these　comparisons, first, the related structure of the distribution of medical and care resources nationwide was modeled using structural equation modeling. Secondly, multigroup analysis was conducted to investigate differences among the models across groups.

Results: The nationwide SMAs were grouped largely based on urbanicity and middle-density regionality. The groups with high urbanicity and high middle-density regionality consisted of SMAs with a high and medium population density. By contrast, the low middle-density regionality group consisted of SMAs containing large cities with a high population density and depopulated areas with a low population density. The model of the related structure of the distribution of medical and care resources differed among these groups. In the non-urbanicity and middle-density regionality groups, nursing care abundance tended to increase acute care abundance. In addition, in all groups, nursing care abundance tended to increase long-term hospitalization care abundance and clinic care abundance (with beds).

Conclusions: The key finding of this study was that the government's objective of reducing hospital beds may not be achieved solely by expanding nursing homes. This is because many of the models did not show a tendency that higher nursing care abundance reduces the values of the factors which increase more hospital beds. This finding was particularly relevant in middle-density regionality groups. This finding suggests that the location of nursing homes should be monitored because of concerns about the oversupply of nursing homes and sprawl in those areas.