Personalized modeling of Alzheimer's disease progression estimates neurodegeneration severity from EEG recordings.

Introduction: Early identification of Alzheimer's disease (AD) is necessary for a timely onset of therapeutic care. However, cortical structural alterations associated with AD are difficult to discern.

Methods: We developed a cortical model of AD-related neurodegeneration accounting for slowing of local dynamics and global connectivity degradation. In a monocentric study we collected electroencephalography (EEG) recordings at rest from participants in healthy (HC,  = 17), subjective cognitive decline (SCD,  = 58), and mild cognitive impairment (MCI,  = 44) conditions. For each patient, we estimated neurodegeneration model parameters based on individual EEG recordings.

Results: Our model outperformed standard EEG analysis not only in discriminating between HC and MCI conditions (F1 score 0.95 vs 0.75) but also in identifying SCD patients with biological hallmarks of AD in the cerebrospinal fluid (recall 0.87 vs 0.50).

Discussion: Personalized models could (1) support classification of MCI, (2) assess the presence of AD pathology, and (3) estimate the risk of cognitive decline progression, based only on economical and non-invasive EEG recordings.

Highlights: Personalized cortical model estimating structural alterations from EEG recordings.Discrimination of Mild Cognitive Impairment (MCI) and Healthy (HC) subjects (95%)Prediction of biological markers of Alzheimer's in Subjective Decline (SCD) Subjects (87%)Transition correctly predicted for 3/3 subjects that converted from SCD to MCI after 1y.