Time-Varying Proteinuria and Progression of IgA Nephropathy: A Cohort Study.

Rationale & Objective: Proteinuria is a surrogate end point for predicting long-term kidney outcomes in IgA nephropathy (IgAN) with levels<1g/day identified as a therapeutic target. However, this threshold has not been sufficiently studied. We quantified the associations of progression of IgAN with various levels of proteinuria.

Study Design: Observational cohort study.

Setting & Participants: 1,530 patients with IgAN and at least 12 months of follow-up at Peking University First Hospital.

Exposure: Proteinuria levels updated over time (time-varying proteinuria, TVP).

Outcome: A composite kidney outcome of a 50% reduction in the estimated glomerular filtration rate or end-stage kidney disease.

Analytical Approach: Marginal structural models.

Results: After a median follow-up period of 43.5 (IQR, 27.2-72.8) months, 254 patients (16.6%) developed the composite kidney outcome. A graded association was observed between TVP and composite kidney outcomes with higher risk among those with proteinuria of≥0.5g/day. Compared with TVP<0.3g/day, the HRs for proteinuria levels of 0.3 to<0.5g/day, 0.5 to<1.0g/day, 1.0 to<2.0g/day, and≥2.0g/day were 2.22 (95% CI, 0.88-5.58), 4.04 (95% CI, 1.93-8.46), 8.46 (95% CI, 3.80-18.83), and 38.00 (95% CI, 17.62-81.95), respectively. The trend was more pronounced in patients with baseline proteinuria of≥1.0g/day, among whom a higher risk was observed with TVP of 0.3 to<0.5g/day compared with TVP<0.3g/day (HR, 3.26 [95% CI, 1.07-9.92], P=0.04). However, in patients with baseline proteinuria levels of<1g/day, the risk of composite kidney outcome only began to increase when TVP was≥1.0g/day (HR, 3.25 [95% CI, 1.06-9.90]).

Limitations: Single-center observational study, selection bias, and unmeasured confounders.

Conclusions: This study showed that patients with IgAN and proteinuria levels of>0.5g/day, have an elevated risk of kidney failure especially among patients with proteinuria levels≥1.0g/day before initiating treatment. These data may serve to inform the selection of proteinuria targets in the treatment of IgAN.

Plain-language Summary: The presence of proteinuria has often been considered a surrogate end point and a possible therapeutic target in clinical trials in IgA nephropathy (IgAN). Some guidelines recommend a reduction in proteinuria to<1g/day as a treatment goal based on the results of previous longitudinal studies. However, these findings may have been biased because they did not properly adjust for time-dependent confounders. Using marginal structural models to appropriately account for these confounding influences, we observed that patients with IgAN and proteinuria levels≥0.5g/day have an elevated risk of kidney failure, especially among patients who had proteinuria levels of≥1.0g/day before initiating treatment. These data may serve to inform the selection of proteinuria targets in the treatment of IgAN.