The Future State of Race/Ethnicity in Urology: Urology Workforce Projection From 2021-2061.

Objective: To project the proportion of the urology workforce that is from under-represented in medicine (URiM) groups between 2021-2061.

Methods: Demographic data were obtained from AUA Census and ACGME Data Resource Books. The number of graduating urology residents and proportion of URiM graduating residents were characterized with linear models. Stock and Flow models were used to project future population numbers and proportions of URiM practicing urologists, contingent on assumptions regarding trainee demographics, retirement trends, and growth in the field.

Results: Currently, there is an increase in the percentage of URiM graduates by 0.145% per year. If historical trends continue, URiM urologists will likely comprise 16.2% of urology residency graduates and 13.3% of the practicing urological workforce in 2061. These percentages would constitute an underrepresentation of URiM urologists relative to the projected 44.2% of the U.S. population who would identify as American Indian/Alaskan Native, Black/African American, Latinx/Hispanic and Native Hawaiian/Pacific Islander by 2060. An increase in the percentage of URiM graduates by 0.845% per year would result in 44.2% URiM urology residency graduates and 26.1% URiM practicing urologists by 2061. An interactive app was designed to allow for a range of assumptions to be explored and for future data to be incorporated.

Conclusion: URiM physician representation within urology over the next 40years will remain disproportionately low compared to that of the projected share of people of color in the general U.S.

Population: In order to achieve the AUA's Diversity, Equity and Inclusion goals, a concerted effort to implement interventions to recruit, train, and retain a generation of racially diverse urologists appears necessary.