Psychosocial factors associated with intention to pursue tertiary education among Malawian students: the moderating effect of mental health.

Background: In Sub Saharan Africa (SSA), approximately 9 million students are enrolled in tertiary education (TE), which is 4% of the total TE enrolment globally. Barriers to higher education in SSA are numerous: poverty, food insecurity, gender, and disability, while the COVID-19 pandemic has worsened the situation. Little is known about the psychosocial factors and underlying mechanisms associated with students' intention to apply for TE. Using a psychological theory of behaviour change, our study investigated the psychosocial and context factors associated with the application to TE.

Methods: In a cross-sectional research study 821 interviews using researcher-administered questionnaires were conducted with secondary school students in rural and urban Blantyre, Malawi. A quantitative questionnaire based on the risks, attitudes, norms, abilities, and self-regulation (RANAS) model was used to assess psychosocial factors underlying application for TE. The Centre for Epidemiological Studies Depression Scale for Children (CES-DC) and household hunger scale were used to assess mental health and hunger respectively.

Results: More than half of the youth were at risk to develop depression (66.5%). Girls reported experiencing more depression symptoms than boys. Around 1 in every 5 interviewed youth lived in a home experiencing moderate or severe hunger. A higher intention to apply for TE was related to perceived vulnerability, affective beliefs (joy, happiness, excitement), injunctive (approval of others) and personal norms, self-efficacy, and commitment to apply. Factual knowledge about TE application was very limited. An intention to apply for TE and self-efficacy was positively associated with regular physical exercise, but negatively associated with mental health and hunger. However, mental health moderated the effects of physical exercise on the intention to apply for TE. We found significant differences between poor and good mental health groups on intention to apply for TE in perceived vulnerability, descriptive (behaviour of others) and personal norms, self-efficacy, maintenance self-efficacy and commitment factors. The results informed a behaviour change intervention strategy to increase students' intention to apply for TE.

Conclusions: Our research findings are an important contribution to the long-term strategy of achieving the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and contribute to the inclusion of vulnerable students with impaired mental health in higher education in Malawi and beyond.