Translating trial results into interpretable risk estimates: Systematic analysis of cardiorenal outcome trials of glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonists and sodium-glucose cotransporter-2 inhibitors.

Background And Aims: In a randomised controlled trial (RCT), the between-arm difference in the average probability of an event per unit of time (i.e., yearly incidence risk difference, YIRD) is an easy-to-interpret treatment effect metric. We aimed to quantify the YIRD in cardiorenal RCTs of GLP-1RAs or SGLT-2is.

Methods And Results: We digitally searched for RCTs published up to March 1st, 2023, including subjects with type 2 diabetes randomised to GLP-1RAs or SGLT-2is and investigating cardiorenal outcomes or death. We extracted information from Kaplan-Meier (KM) plots to obtain time-to-event individual data and estimate within-arm yearly incidence risk and YIRD. Data from 19 RCTs (28 kM plots) were analysed: comparing treatment to placebo, in GLP-1RA RCTs the YIRD ranged from 0.2 % (95 % CI: -0.7 %, 1.1 %) to -1.9 % (-3.1, -0.7), for primary outcome; and from -0.2 % (-0.5, 0.2) to -0.4 % (-0.7 %, -0.0 %), for mortality. With the exception of SOLOIST-WHF (YIRD 11.9 % for primary outcome), corresponding estimates in SGLT-2is RCTs were: from -0.1 % (-0.4, 0.1) to -5.0 % (-7.7, -2.6), for primary outcome; and from -0.1 % (-0.2, 0.1) to -1.9 % (-4.4 %, 0.6 %), for mortality.

Conclusion: The YIRD metric complements other relative treatment effect estimates and helps quantify the absolute benefit of GLP-1RAs and SGLT-2is.