Temperature and sex shape reproductive barriers in a climate change hotspot.

Climate change is altering species ranges and reproductive interactions in existing ranges, offering species new scope to mate and hybridize. The outcomes will depend on how environmental factors shape reproductive barriers across life stages, yet this is rarely assessed across the environments that species encounter in nature. We assess prezygotic and postzygotic barriers, and their dependence on temperature and parental sex, in species of a reef-building tubeworm (Galeolaria) from a fast-warming biodiversity hotspot in southern Australia. By replicating pure and reciprocal hybrid crosses across 5 temperatures spanning species' thermal ranges, we estimate thermal tolerance curves (defining niches) for crosses and reproductive isolation at each temperature. By also replicating crosses at 3 life stages, we partition the contributions of prezygotic barriers at fertilization, postzygotic barriers at embryogenesis, and postzygotic barriers at larval development to reproductive isolation. We show that barriers are weaker at fertilization and embryogenesis, but stronger and more temperature sensitive at larval development, as species diverge in thermal niche. Asymmetry of barriers between parental sexes, moreover, suggests a complex interplay between niche differentiation and maternal inheritance. Our findings point to a key role for temperature in reproductive isolation, but also challenges for predicting the fate of isolation in future climates.