Modeling the dynamics of harmful algal bloom events in two bays from the northern Chilean upwelling system.

The bays of Tongoy and Guanaqueros are located in the Humboldt Current system, where Argopecten purpuratus has been the subject of intense aquaculture development. These bays lie in one of the most productive marine ecosystems on Earth and are dominated by permanent coastal upwelling at Lengua de Vaca Point and Choros Point, one of the three upwelling centers on the Chilean coast. Significantly, this productive system experiences a high recurrence of harmful algal bloom (HAB) events. This paper examines 9-year (2010-2018) samples of three toxic microalgal species collected in different monitoring programs and research projects. During this period, nine HAB events were detected in Guanaqueros Bay and 14 in Tongoy Bay. Among these, three HAB events were produced simultaneously in both bays by Pseudo-nitzschia australis, and two events produced simultaneously were detected in one bay by Alexandrium spp. and the other by Dinophysis acuminata. Before El Niño 2015-16, there were more HAB events of longer duration by the three species. Since El Niño, the number and duration of events were reduced and only produced by P. australis. HAB events were simulated with the FVCOM model and a virtual particle tracker model to evaluate the dynamics of bays and their relationship with HAB events. The results showed retention in bays during the relaxation conditions of upwelling and low connectivity between bays, which explains why almost no simultaneous events were recorded.