Machine learning based biomarker discovery for chronic kidney disease-mineral and bone disorder (CKD-MBD).

Introduction: Chronic kidney disease-mineral and bone disorder (CKD-MBD) is characterized by bone abnormalities, vascular calcification, and some other complications. Although there are diagnostic criteria for CKD-MBD, in situations when conducting target feature examining are unavailable, there is a need to investigate and discover alternative biochemical criteria that are easy to obtain. Moreover, studying the correlations between the newly discovered biomarkers and the existing ones may provide insights into the underlying molecular mechanisms of CKD-MBD.

Methods: We collected a cohort of 116 individuals, consisting of three subtypes of CKD-MBD: calcium abnormality, phosphorus abnormality, and PTH abnormality. To identify the best biomarker panel for discrimination, we conducted six machine learning prediction methods and employed a sequential forward feature selection approach for each subtype. Additionally, we collected a separate prospective cohort of 114 samples to validate the discriminative power of the trained prediction models.

Results: Using machine learning under cross validation setting, the feature selection method selected a concise biomarker panel for each CKD-MBD subtype as well as for the general one. Using the consensus of these features, best area under ROC curve reached up to 0.95 for the training dataset and 0.74 for the perspective dataset, respectively.

Discussion/conclusion: For the first time, we utilized machine learning methods to analyze biochemical criteria associated with CKD-MBD. Our aim was to identify alternative biomarkers that could serve not only as early detection indicators for CKD-MBD, but also as potential candidates for studying the underlying molecular mechanisms of the condition.