Progression of vertebral deformity of prevalent vertebral fractures in the elderly: a population-based study.

Background: Little is known about the progression pattern of vertebral deformities in elderly patients with prevalent vertebral fractures. This population-based cohort study investigated the incidence, progression pattern, and risk factors of vertebral deformity in prevalent vertebral fractures over a finite period of four years in a population-based cohort study.

Methods: A total of 224 inhabitants of a typical mountain village underwent medical examinations every second year from 1997 to 2009, and each participant was followed up for four years. The extent (mild, moderate, severe) and type (wedge, biconcave, crush) of prevalent vertebral fractures on spinal radiographs were evaluated using the Genant semi-quantitative method. Of these participants, 116 with prevalent vertebral fractures at baseline (32 men and 84 women; mean age: 70.0 years) were included in this study. The progression patterns of the 187 vertebral fractures with mild and moderate deformities (except severe deformity) were evaluated. Logistic regression analysis was used to identify the risk factors associated with deformity progression.

Results: The progression of vertebral deformities was identified in 13.4% (25 vertebral fractures) of the total 187 prevalent (mild and moderate) vertebral fracture deformities over four years. Among the three deformity types, the prevalence of deformity progression was significantly lower in wedge-type vertebral fractures (P < 0.05). Age and number of prevalent vertebral fractures per participant were independent risk factors associated with the progression of prevalent vertebral deformities.

Conclusion: This study clarified the natural history of the progression pattern of vertebral deformities in radiographic prevalent vertebral fractures in elderly individuals. Multiple vertebral fractures in the elderly present a risk for the progression of vertebral deformities.