Identifying key environmental factors to model Alt a 1 airborne allergen presence and variation.

Fungal spores, commonly found in the atmosphere, can trigger important respiratory disorders. The glycoprotein Alt a 1 is the major allergen present in conidia of the genus Alternaria and has a high clinical relevance for people sensitized to fungi. Exposure to this allergen has been traditionally assessed by aerobiological spore counts, although this does not always offer an accurate estimate of airborne allergen load. This study aims to pinpoint the key factors that explain the presence and variation of Alt a 1 concentration in the atmosphere in order to establish exposure risk periods and improve forecasting models. Alternaria spores were sampled using a Hirst-type volumetric sampler over a five-year period. The allergenic fraction from the bioaerosol was collected using a low-volume cyclone sampler and Alt a 1 quantified by Enzyme-Linked ImmunoSorbent Assay. A cluster analysis was executed in order to group days with similar environmental features and then analyze days with the presence of the allergen in each of them. Subsequently, a quadratic discriminant analysis was performed to evaluate if the selected variables can predict days with high Alt a 1 load. The results indicate that higher temperatures and absolute humidity favor the presence of Alt a 1 in the atmosphere, while time of precipitation is related to days without allergen. Moreover, using the selected parameters, the quadratic discriminant analysis to predict days with allergen showed an accuracy rate between 67 % and 85 %. The mismatch between daily airborne concentration of Alternaria spores and allergen load can be explained by the greater contribution of medium-to-long distance transport of the allergen from the major emission sources as compared with spores. Results highlight the importance of conducting aeroallergen quantification studies together with spore counts to improve the forecasting models of allergy risk, especially for fungal spores.