Modelling the longer-term health and health inequality impacts of changes in alcohol consumption during the COVID-19 pandemic in England.

Background: Alcohol consumption changed substantially during the COVID-19 pandemic for many people. This study quantified how these changes in drinking varied across the population and their potential longer-term impact on health and health inequalities.

Methods: We analyzed data from the Alcohol Toolkit Study to estimate how alcohol consumption changed during the pandemic (April 2020-November 2021) and how these changes varied with age, sex, drinking level and socioeconomic position. We combined these estimates with a range of alternative scenarios of future alcohol consumption and used the Sheffield Alcohol Policy Model to assess the long-term health and health inequality impacts of these changes.

Results: Alcohol consumption in 2020-21 increased in heavier drinkers but fell in moderate drinkers. If alcohol consumption returns to pre-pandemic levels in 2022, we estimate a total of 42 677 additional hospital admissions and 1830 deaths over 20 years because of these changes. If consumption remains at 2021 levels in the long-term these figures rise to 355 832 and 12 849, respectively. In all scenarios, the biggest increase in harm occurs in the most deprived 20% of the population.

Conclusions: Pandemic-era changes in alcohol consumption are likely to have a significant negative impact on public health and health inequalities, even under optimistic assumptions about future drinking.