Is Visual Prediction Impaired in Adolescents with Autism spectrum Disorder? Event-Related Potentials in a Cued Visual GO/NOGO Task.

Deviant visual processing has been observed in autism spectrum disorder (ASD), manifesting as decreased P1 and P2 components of visual event-related potentials (ERPs). Alterations have been attributed to a failure of Bayesian inference, characterized by hypo-activation of top-down predictive abilities. To test this hypothesis, we measured the visual negativity (vN) as an ERP index of visual preparation hypothesized to mirror predictive brain activity. ERPs in a cued visual GO/NOGO task in 63 adolescents with ASD (IQ > 70, attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder excluded) were compared with ERPs in a sex- and age-matched group of 60 typically developing (TD) controls. The behavioral variables (omissions, commissions, reaction time, and reaction time variability), as well as ERP components reflecting, among other processes, cognitive control (contingent negative variation, P3 GO, P3 NOGO, N2 NOGO) did not differ between the groups. There were group differences in visually based ERPs. Besides P1 and P2 differences, the vN component differentiated the 2 groups with the highest effect size (  =  0.74). This ERP study lends support to the hypothesis suggesting that a Bayesian hypo-prediction could underlie unique perceptual experiences in individuals with ASD. This could lead to a predisposition to perceive the world with reduced influence and modulation from contextual cues, prior experiences, and pre-existing expectations.