Progression of patients with Raynaud's phenomenon to systemic sclerosis: a five-year analysis of the European Scleroderma Trial and Research group multicentre, longitudinal registry study for Very Early Diagnosis of Systemic Sclerosis (VEDOSS).

Background: Preliminary criteria for the very early diagnosis of systemic sclerosis (VEDOSS) have been previously proposed to identify signs and symptoms in patients with Raynaud's phenomenon. Patients with all signs or symptoms of the VEDOSS criteria already fulfil the 2013 American College of Rheumatology-European League Against Rheumatism (ACR-EULAR) classification criteria for systemic sclerosis. However, prospective data for the evolution to fulfilling these criteria do not exist. We therefore aimed to determine the clinical value of the VEDOSS criteria to identify patients with Raynaud's phenomenon who progress to systemic sclerosis within 5 years.

Methods: The VEDOSS project was a multicentre, longitudinal registry study done in 42 European Scleroderma Trial and Research group centres located in 20 countries in Europe, North America, and South America. Patients with Raynaud's phenomenon were eligible for enrolment. Those who had fulfilled the 1980 ACR or the 2013 ACR-EULAR classification criteria for systemic sclerosis, as well as of any other ACR or EULAR classification criteria for other definite connective tissue diseases at enrolment were excluded. Data were recorded each year during follow-up visits and included the four VEDOSS criteria (ie, positivity for antinuclear antibodies [ANAs], puffy fingers, systemic sclerosis-specific autoantibodies, and abnormal nailfold capillaroscopy). The primary endpoint was the fulfilment of the 2013 ACR-EULAR classification criteria for systemic sclerosis (ie, progression from enrolment to follow-up). Proportion of progressors and VEDOSS criteria interaction were reported descriptively. Predictors of progression of the distinct VEDOSS criteria interactions were determined based on the point prevalence at 5 years. To investigate the intermediate course of progression of the distinct VEDOSS criteria and their combinations, Kaplan-Meier analysis was done.

Results: Between March 1, 2010, and Oct 4, 2018, we enrolled 1150 patients with Raynaud's phenomenon in the VEDOSS database. 764 (66·4%) of 1150 patients met the VEDOSS criteria for study inclusion. Of the 764 patients, 553 (72·4%) had at least one available follow-up visit and the median duration of follow-up was 3·6 years (IQR 1·7-5·8). The mean age was 45·9 years (SD 15·0), 507 (91·7%) of 553 participants were female, and the median time since the onset of Raynaud's phenomenon was 4·0 years (IQR 1·7-10·0). At baseline, 401 (73·7%) of 544 patients with Raynaud's phenomenon had detectable ANA, with 208 (39·5%) of 527 patients positive for systemic sclerosis-specific autoantibodies. Nailfold capillaroscopy abnormalities were present in 182 (36·0%) of 505 patients and puffy fingers were detected in 96 (17·8%) of 540 at baseline. 1885 follow-up visits were recorded. 254 (45·9%) of 553 patients completed the study with progression or a 5-year follow-up; of whom, 133 reached the primary endpoint, resulting in an overall progression rate of 52·4%. The absence of ANA at baseline was the factor most strongly associated with a lack of progression within 5 years, with only four (10·8%) of 37 ANA-negative patients progressing. Conversely, positivity at baseline for systemic sclerosis-specific autoantibodies and puffy fingers was the combination having the highest risk of progression (16 [94·1%] of 17).

Interpretation: Our results from the VEDOSS project offers a useful tool for a stratified risk approach to patients with Raynaud's phenomenon. The absence of ANA is a strong protective factor that identifies patients with very low risk of developing systemic sclerosis whereas the presence of one or two VEDOSS criteria in patients with Raynaud's phenomenon confers a progressively higher risk for systemic sclerosis over time. This stratification tool can be used both for clinical management and to inform early interventional trials.

Funding: European Scleroderma Trial And Research and World Scleroderma Foundation.