Regression analysis of multivariate recurrent event data allowing time-varying dependence with application to stroke registry data.

In multivariate recurrent event data, each patient may repeatedly experience more than one type of event. Analysis of such data gets further complicated by the time-varying dependence structure among different types of recurrent events. The available literature regarding the joint modeling of multivariate recurrent events assumes a constant dependency over time, which is strict and often violated in practice. To close the knowledge gap, we propose a class of flexible shared random effects models for multivariate recurrent event data that allow for time-varying dependence to adequately capture complex correlation structures among different types of recurrent events. We developed an expectation-maximization algorithm for stable and efficient model fitting. Extensive simulation studies demonstrated that the estimators of the proposed approach have satisfactory finite sample performance. We applied the proposed model and the estimating method to data from a cohort of stroke patients identified in the University of Texas Houston Stroke Registry and evaluated the effects of risk factors and the dependence structure of different types of post-stroke readmission events.