Predicting environmental risks of pharmaceutical residues by wastewater surveillance: An analysis based on pharmaceutical sales and their excretion data.

Pharmaceutical residues are increasingly becoming a significant source of environmental water pollution and ecological risk. This study, leveraging official national pharmaceutical sales statistics, predicts the environmental concentrations of 33 typical pharmaceuticals in the Tianjin area. The results show that 52 % of the drugs have a PEC/MEC (Predicted Environmental Concentration/Measured Environmental Concentration) ratio within the acceptable range of 0.5-2, including atenolol (1.21), carbamazepine (1.22), and sulfamethoxazole (0.91). Among the selected drugs, tetracycline, ciprofloxacin, and acetaminophen had the highest predicted concentrations. The EPI (Estimation Programs Interface) biodegradation model, a tool from the US Environmental Protection Agency, is used to predict the removal efficiency of compounds in wastewater treatment plants. The results indicate that the EPI predictions are acceptable for macrolide antibiotics and β-blockers, with removal rates of roxithromycin, spiramycin, acetaminophen, and carbamazepine being 14.1 %, 61.2 %, 75.1 %, and 44.5 %, respectively. However, the model proved to be less effective for fluoroquinolone antibiotics. The ECOSAR (Ecological Structure-Activity Relationships) model was used to supplement the assessment of the potential impacts of drugs on aquatic ecosystems, further refining the analysis of pharmaceutical environmental risks. By combining the concentration and detection frequency of pharmaceutical wastewater, this study identified 9 drugs with significant toxicological risks and marked another 24 drugs as substances of potential concern. Additionally, this study provides data support for addressing pharmaceutical residues of priority concern in subsequent research.