Prognostic value of F-FDG PET radiomics and sarcopenia in patients with oral squamous cell carcinoma.

Background: Oral cancer is one of the most common malignancies in the head and neck region. Approximately 90% of oral cancers are oral squamous cell carcinomas (OSCC). F-FDG PET/CT has been used in OSCC patients for its high value in detecting metastatic lymph nodes and distant metastases. PET radiomics and sarcopenia can be measured on the PET and CT components of F-FDG PET/CT.

Purpose: This study aimed to investigate the prognostic value of radiomics and sarcopenia measured on the PET and CT components of pre-operation F-FDG PET/CT in OSCC.

Methods: A total of 116 patients eventually enrolled in our study were randomly divided into two cohorts: training cohort (n = 58) and validation cohort (n = 58). The Cox model combined with the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) algorithm was applied to construct the radiomics score (Rad_score). The third lumber skeletal muscle index (L3 SMI) was calculated to identify sarcopenia. Univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses were performed to identify the independent prognostic factors. Based on the clinical factors, the clinical model was constructed, and the combined model was developed through the combination of the clinical model and Rad_score. C index, time-dependent C-index curves, receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, calibration curves, and decision curve analysis were used to evaluate the performance of prediction models.

Results: Three radiomics features constitute the Rad_score for overall survival (OS) and progression-free survival (PFS), respectively. Multivariate Cox regression analysis revealed that Rad_score was an independent prognostic factor, whereas sarcopenia was not. The combined models showed satisfactory performance in both the training cohort (C-index: OS:0.836, PFS:0.776) and the validation cohort (C-index: OS:0.744, PFS:0.712). The combined models were visualized as nomograms. Nomogram scores can realize the risk stratification of OSCC patients. Lower nomogram score is significantly related to the poorer OS (training cohort: p < 0.0001, validation cohort: p < 0.0001, overall cohort: p < 0.0001) and PFS (training cohort: p < 0.0001, validation cohort: p = 0.00017, overall cohort: p < 0.0001).

Conclusions: Rad_score, but not sarcopenia, was an independent prognostic factor for patients with OSCC. The nomograms had a satisfactory performance, which might be helpful for OSCC patients and clinicians in personalized prognostic prediction and treatment decision-making.