Predictive Modeling of COVID-19 Intensive Care Unit Patient Flows and Nursing Complexity: A Monte Carlo Simulation Study.

Comput Inform Nurs

Author Affiliations: Department of Anesthesiology and Intensive Care, CHU Timone, Assistance Publique Hôpitaux de Marseille, Aix Marseille Université (Ms Simoncini, Mrs Jarry, Mrs Moussion, Ms Marcheschi, Mrs Giordanino, Ms Lusenti, and Drs Bruder, Velly, and Boussen); Aix Marseille Université, IFSTTAR, LBA UMR_T 24 (Dr Boussen); and Institut des Neurociences de la Timone, CNRS UMR1106, Faculté de Médecine, Aix-Marseille Université (Dr Velly), France.

Published: June 2024

This study aimed to develop a Monte Carlo simulation model to forecast the number of ICU beds needed for COVID-19 patients and the subsequent nursing complexity in a French teaching hospital during the first and second pandemic outbreaks. The model used patient data from March 2020 to September 2021, including age, sex, ICU length of stay, and number of patients on mechanical ventilation or extracorporeal membrane oxygenation. Nursing complexity was assessed using a simple scale with three levels based on patient status. The simulation was performed 1000 times to generate a scenario, and the mean outcome was compared with the observed outcome. The model also allowed for a 7-day forecast of ICU occupancy. The simulation output had a good fit with the actual data, with an R2 of 0.998 and a root mean square error of 0.22. The study demonstrated the usefulness of the Monte Carlo simulation model for predicting the demand for ICU beds and could help optimize resource allocation during a pandemic. The model's extrinsic validity was confirmed using open data from the French Public Health Authority. This study provides a valuable tool for healthcare systems to anticipate and manage surges in ICU demand during pandemics.

Download full-text PDF

Source
http://dx.doi.org/10.1097/CIN.0000000000001100DOI Listing

Publication Analysis

Top Keywords

nursing complexity
12
monte carlo
12
carlo simulation
12
simulation model
8
icu beds
8
simulation
5
icu
5
predictive modeling
4
modeling covid-19
4
covid-19 intensive
4

Similar Publications

Want AI Summaries of new PubMed Abstracts delivered to your In-box?

Enter search terms and have AI summaries delivered each week - change queries or unsubscribe any time!