Reexamining predictors of trial outcomes in New York State's sex offender civil management process.

Objective: In 2007, New York enacted the Sex Offender Management and Treatment Act, empowering the state to civilly manage individuals who have committed sexual offenses (respondents) and are deemed to have a mental abnormality (MA) that predisposes them to sexually recidivate after serving their criminal sentences. We sought to replicate and extend a previous study (Lu et al., 2015) to identify factors predicting legal decisions.

Hypotheses: We predicted, on the basis of previous research, that clinical information (e.g., diagnosis) as well as empirically supported risk factors (e.g., sexual deviance) would predict trial outcomes.

Method: We analyzed multiple pieces of demographic, criminogenic, and clinical data on three nested subsamples of respondents on the basis of the legal process: MA consent ( = 713), MA trial ( = 316), and disposition hearing ( = 643). The binary outcomes of interest were as follows: For the MA consent subsample, it was whether the respondent waived their MA trial; for the MA trial subsample, it was whether the respondent was found at trial to have an MA; and for the disposition hearing, it was whether the respondent was ordered to inpatient or outpatient civil management.

Results: The strongest predictor of waiving the trial was geographic location; respondents outside New York City and Long Island were more likely to waive their trials (s = 2.38-3.37). The strongest predictors of MA trial and disposition hearing outcomes were diagnoses; pedophilia (s = 4.05-7.22) and sexual sadism (s = 2.68-7.03) diagnoses increased the likelihood of an MA finding and confinement order.

Conclusions: Judges and juries give significant weight to clinical information, particularly pedophilia diagnoses, when making civil management legal decisions. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2024 APA, all rights reserved).