MRI Digital Artery Volume Index (DAVIX) as a surrogate outcome measure of digital ulcer disease in patients with systemic sclerosis: a prospective cohort study.

Background: Vascular fibrosis is a key manifestation of systemic sclerosis that leads to the narrowing of small and medium arteries, causing vascular clinical manifestations including digital ulcers and pulmonary arterial hypertension. We investigated the potential of the MRI-based Digital Artery Volume Index (DAVIX) as a surrogate outcome measure of vascular fibrosis by using it to quantify and predict the burden of digital ulcer disease in patients with systemic sclerosis.

Methods: Two independent cohorts of patients participating in the prospective observational study STRIKE were consecutively enrolled from the Scleroderma Clinic of the Leeds Teaching Hospitals Trust, Leeds, UK. Eligible patients were aged 18 years or older and fulfilled the very early diagnosis of systemic sclerosis (VEDOSS) or the 2013 American College of Rheumatology (ACR)-European Alliance of Associations for Rheumatology (EULAR) systemic sclerosis classification criteria. DAVIX was calculated as the percentage mean of the ratio of digital artery volume to finger volume in the four fingers of the dominant hand. Data were collected at baseline and 12-month follow-up, and the primary outcome was the presence of digital ulcers at 12-month follow-up.

Findings: Between Feb 7, 2018, and April 11, 2022, we included 85 patients in the exploratory cohort and 150 in the validation cohort. In the exploratory cohort, the mean age was 54·5 years (SD 11·6), 75 (88%) of 85 patients were women, ten (12%) were men, and 69 (82%) were White. In the validation cohort, the mean age was 53·5 years (SD 13·8), 136 (91%) of 150 patients were women, 14 (9%) were men, and 127 (85%) were White. In the exploratory cohort, DAVIX was significantly lower in patients with previous or active digital ulcers (0·34% [IQR 0·16-0·69]) than in those without digital ulcer disease (0·65% [0·42-0·88]; p=0·015); this finding was substantiated in the validation cohort (0·43% [0·20-0·73] vs 0·73% [0·53-0·97]; p<0·0001). Patients who developed new digital ulcers during 12-month follow-up had a lower DAVIX (0·23% [0·10-0·66]) than those who did not (0·65% [0·45-0·91]; p=0·0039). DAVIX was negatively correlated with disease duration (r=-0·415; p<0·0001), the ratio of forced vital capacity to the diffusing capacity of the lungs for carbon monoxide (r=-0·334; p=0·0091), nailfold capillaroscopy pattern (r=-0·447; p<0·0001), and baseline modified Rodnan skin score (r=-0·305; p=0·014) and was positively correlated with the diffusing capacity of carbon monoxide (r=0·368; p=0·0041). DAVIX was negatively correlated with change in score on the Scleroderma Health Assessment Questionnaire-Disability Index (r=-0·308; p=0·024), Visual Analogue Scale (VAS) Raynaud's (r=-0·271; p=0·044), and VAS digital ulcers (r=-0·291; p=0·044).

Interpretation: DAVIX is a promising surrogate outcome measure of digital ulcer disease in patients with systemic sclerosis. The ability of DAVIX to non-invasively predict future digital ulcers and worsening of patient-reported outcomes could aid patient enrichment and stratification in clinical trials. Clinically, DAVIX could offer insights into the assessment of vascular activity. The sensitivity of DAVIX to change over time and with treatment will establish its value as an imaging outcome measure of vascular disease.

Funding: National Institute for Health Research Biomedical Research Centre and University of Leeds Industry Engagement Accelerator Fund.