Developing a Practical Tool for Predicting Wound Healing Outcomes of Patients with Diabetic Forefoot Ulcers: Focus on Vasculopathy and Infection.

Objective: To develop a preliminary risk scoring system to predict the prognosis of patients with diabetic forefoot ulcers based on the severity of vasculopathy and infection, which are the major risk factors for amputation.

Methods: Forefoot was defined as the distal part of the foot composed of the metatarsal bones and phalanges and associated soft tissue structures. The degree of vasculopathy was graded as V0, V1, or V2 according to transcutaneous partial oxygen tension values and toe pressure. The degree of infection was graded as I0, I1, or I2 according to tissue and bone biopsy culture results. The risk scores were calculated by adding the scores for the degree of vasculopathy and infection and ranged from 0 to 4. Wound healing outcomes were graded as healed without amputation, minor amputation, or major amputation. The authors evaluated wound healing outcomes according to risk scores.

Results: As the risk score increased, the proportion of patients who underwent both major and minor amputations increased (P < .001). In the multivariate logistic analysis, the odds ratios of amputation also increased as the risk score increased. Patients with a risk score of 4 were 75- and 19-fold more likely to undergo major and minor amputations, respectively, than patients with a risk score of 0 (P = .006 and P < .001).

Conclusions: The risk score can be used as an indicator to predict the probability of amputation in patients with diabetic forefoot ulcers.