Racial and ethnic differences in predictors of participation in an intergenerational social connectedness intervention for older adults.

Background: Social connectedness is a key determinant of health and interventions have been developed to prevent social isolation in older adults. However, these interventions have historically had a low participation rate amongst minority populations. Given the sustained isolation caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, it is even more important to understand what factors are associated with an individual's decision to participate in a social intervention. To achieve this, we used machine learning techniques to model the racial and ethnic differences in participation in social connectedness interventions.

Methods: Data were obtained from a social connectedness intervention that paired college students with Houston-area community-dwelling older adults (> 65 yo) enrolled in Medicare Advantage plans. Eligible participants were contacted telephonically and asked to complete the 3-item UCLA Loneliness Scale. We used the following machine-learning methods to identify significant predictors of participation in the program: k-nearest neighbors, logistic regression, decision tree, gradient-boosted decision tree, and random forest.

Results: The gradient-boosted decision tree models yielded the best parameters for all race/ethnicity groups (96.1% test accuracy, 0.739 AUROC). Among non-Hispanic White older adults, key features of the predictive model included Functional Comorbidity Index (FCI) score, Medicare prescription risk score, Medicare risk score, and depression and anxiety indicators within the FCI. Among non-Hispanic Black older adults, key features included disability, Medicare prescription risk score, FCI and Medicare risk scores. Among Hispanic older adults, key features included depression, FCI and Medicare risk scores.

Conclusions: These findings offer a substantial opportunity for the design of interventions that maximize engagement among minority groups at greater risk for adverse health outcomes.