Validation of Utstein-Based score to predict return of spontaneous circulation (UB-ROSC) in patients with out-of-hospital cardiac arrest.

Background And Aims: The Utstein Based-ROSC (UB-ROSC) score has been developed to predict ROSC in OHCA victims. Aim of the study was to validate the UB-ROSC score using two Utstein-based OHCA registries: the SWiss REgistry of Cardiac Arrest (SWISSRECA) and the Lombardia Cardiac Arrest Registry (Lombardia CARe), northern Italy.

Methods: Consecutive patients with OHCA of any etiology occurring between January 1st, 2019 and December 31st 2021 were included in this retrospective validation study. UB-ROSC score was computed for each patient and categorized in one of three subgroups: low, medium or high likelihood of ROSC according to the UB-ROSC cut-offs (≤-19; -18 to 12; ≥13). To assess the performance of the UB-ROSC score in this new cohort, we assessed both discrimination and calibration. The score was plotted against the survival to hospital admission.

Results: A total of 12.577 patients were included in the study. A sustained ROSC was obtained in 2.719 patients (22%). The UB-ROSC model resulted well calibrated and showed a good discrimination (AUC 0.71, 95% CI 0.70-0.72). In the low likelihood subgroup of UB-ROSC, only 10% of patients achieved ROSC, whereas the proportion raised to 36% for a score between -18 and 12 (OR 5.0, 95% CI 2.9-8.6, p < 0.001) and to 85% for a score ≥13 (OR 49.4, 95% CI 14.3-170.6, p < 0.001).

Conclusions: UB-ROSC score represents a reliable tool to predict ROSC probability in OHCA patients. Its application may help the medical decision-making process, providing a realistic stratification of the probability for ROSC.