Estimating vigilance from the pre-work shift sleep using an under-mattress sleep sensor.

Predicting vigilance impairment in high-risk shift work occupations is critical to help to reduce workplace errors and accidents. Current methods rely on multi-night, often manually entered, sleep data. This study developed a machine learning model for predicting vigilance errors based on a single prior sleep period, derived from an under-mattress sensor. Twenty-four healthy volunteers (mean [SD] age = 27.6 [9.5] years, 12 male) attended the laboratory on two separate occasions, 1 month apart, to compare wake performance and sleep under two different lighting conditions. Each condition occurred over an 8 day protocol comprising a baseline sleep opportunity from 10 p.m. to 7 a.m., a 27 h wake period, then daytime sleep opportunities from 10 a.m. to 7 p.m. on days 3-7. From 12 a.m. to 8 a.m. on each of days 4-7, participants completed simulated night shifts that included six 10 min psychomotor vigilance task (PVT) trials per shift. Sleep was assessed using an under-mattress sensor. Using extra-trees machine learning models, PVT performance (reaction times <500 ms, reaction, and lapses) during each night shift was predicted based on the preceding daytime sleep. The final extra-trees model demonstrated moderate accuracy for predicting PVT performance, with standard errors (RMSE) of 19.9 ms (reaction time, 359 [41.6]ms), 0.42 reactions/s (reaction speed, 2.5 [0.6] reactions/s), and 7.2 (lapses, 10.5 [12.3]). The model also correctly classified 84% of trials containing ≥5 lapses (Matthews correlation coefficient = 0.59, F1 = 0.83). Model performance is comparable to current fatigue prediction models that rely upon self-report or manually entered data. This efficient approach may help to manage fatigue and safety in non-standard work schedules.