Heterogeneity effects of environmental regulation policy synergy on ecological resilience: considering the moderating role of industrial structure.

Given the great importance attached to ecological civilization and green development, exploring the heterogeneous effects of environmental regulation policy synergy on ecological resilience holds significance for improving environmental protection and the design of environmental policies. Based on the policy synergy perspective, this paper uses 30 provinces (municipalities and autonomous) in China as the research sample. Bayesian quantile regression is employed to explore the heterogeneous effects of environmental regulation policy synergy on ecological resilience from 2007 to 2021, and the moderating effect of the industrial structure is examined. The results indicate the following: (1) there is significant heterogeneity and variability in the effect of environmental regulation policy synergy on ecological resilience. Specifically, the effects of policy mixes 12, 13, and 23 on ecological resilience shows a U-shaped trend, while the impact of policy mix 123 on ecological resilience shows a positive effect. (2) There are significant differences in the effects of environmental regulation policy synergy under different quantiles of ecological resilience. Taking policy mix 12 as an example, we find that the effect of policy synergy on ecological resilience tends to decrease and then increase at a lower quantile. Additionally, the effect of policy synergy on ecological resilience tends to be positive at a higher quantile. (3) There are significant differences in the moderating effects of the industrial structure. Policy mix 12 can effectively enhance ecological resilience through industrial structure upgrading, while the moderating effects of alternative policy combinations are deemed insufficient. Finally, relevant policy recommendations are proposed to effectively improve ecological resilience.