Dynamic evolution and spatial difference of public health service supply in economically developed provinces of China: typical evidence from Guangdong Province.

Objective: The outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic has drawn attention from all sectors of society to the level of public health services. This study aims to investigate the level of public health service supply in the four major regions of Guangdong Province, providing a basis for optimizing health resource allocation.

Methods: This article uses the entropy method and panel data of 21 prefecture-level cities in Guangdong Province from 2005 to 2021 to construct the evaluation index system of public health service supply and calculate its supply index. On this basis, the standard deviation ellipse method, kernel density estimation, and Markov chain are used to analyze the spatiotemporal evolution trend of the public health service supply level in Guangdong Province. The Dagum Gini coefficient and panel regression model are further used to analyze the relative differences and the key influencing factors of difference formation. Finally, the threshold effect model is used to explore the action mechanism of the key factors.

Results: Overall, the level of public health service supply in Guangdong Province is on an upward trend. Among them, polarization and gradient effects are observed in the Pearl River Delta and Eastern Guangdong regions; the balance of public health service supply in Western Guangdong and Northern Mountainous areas has improved. During the observation period, the level of public health services in Guangdong Province shifted towards a higher level with a smaller probability of leapfrogging transition, and regions with a high level of supply demonstrated a positive spillover effect. The overall difference, intra-regional difference and inter-regional difference in the level of public health service supply in Guangdong Province during the observation period showed different evolutionary trends, and spatial differences still exist. These differences are more significantly positively affected by factors such as the level of regional economic development, the degree of fiscal decentralization, and the urbanization rate. Under different economic development threshold values, the degree of fiscal decentralization and urbanization rate both have a double threshold effect on the role of public health service supply level.

Conclusion: The overall level of public health service supply in Guangdong Province has improved, but spatial differences still exist. Key factors influencing these differences include the level of regional economic development, the degree of fiscal decentralization, and the urbanization rate, all of which exhibit threshold effects. It is suggested that, in view of the actual situation of each region, efforts should be made to build and maintain their own advantages, enhance the spatial linkage of public health service supply, and consider the threshold effects of key factors in order to optimize the allocation of health resources.