Preoperative predictors of type 2 diabetes remission after bilio-pancreatic diversion with duodenal switch.

Background: Many patients achieve short-term type 2 diabetes (T2D) remission after bariatric surgery, but relapses are common. Diabetes outcomes after bariatric surgery vary across procedures and populations. T2D remission scores are simple clinical tools developed to predict remission after bariatric surgery. However, they have never been tested after Biliopancreatic diversion with duodenal switch (BPD-DS).

Objectives: The aim of this study was to compare the predictive value of T2D remission scores and preoperative diabetes characteristics in predicting T2D remission after BPD-DS.

Setting: Quebec Heart and Lung Institute - Laval University.

Methods: We retrospectively identified 918 patients with preoperative T2D who had undergone BPD-DS. Retrospective chart review was performed and variables used to calculate predictive scores were captured. T2D status was assessed annually for up to 10 years postop. Predictive values for each score (DiarRem, Ad Diarem, and Diabetter) and single preoperative diabetes characteristics used to construct these algorithms were evaluated by area under receiver operating characteristic curves (AUC).

Results: Diabetter showed greater performance for prediction of durable diabetes remission than other algorithms with acceptable discriminative ability (AUC between .69 and .79), but was not superior to T2D duration as a single predictor (P = .24 and P = .18). At 10 years, T2D duration had a better discriminative ability for the prediction of T2D remission than all 3 predictive models (AUC = .85, P < .05).

Conclusions: Better chances for T2D remission following BPD-DS are associated with a shorter duration or T2D before surgery. Duration of T2D alone offers an excellent predictive ability and is a convenient alternative to diabetes remission scores to estimate chances of long-term diabetes remission after BPD-DS.