Predicting anticipated benefit from an extended consultation to personalise care in multimorbidity: a development and internal validation study of a prioritisation algorithm in general practice.

Background: Persons with multimorbidity may gain from person-centred care compared with the current protocolised chronic-disease management in Dutch general practice. Given time constraints and limited resources, it is essential to prioritise those most in need of an assessment of person-centred chronic-care needs.

Aim: To develop and validate a prioritisation algorithm based on routine electronic medical record (EMR) data that distinguishes between patients with multimorbidity who would, and those who would not, benefit from an extended person-centred consultation to assess person-centred chronic-care needs, as judged by GPs.

Design And Setting: A mixed-methods study was conducted in five general practices in the north-west region of the Netherlands. Four out of the five practices were situated in rural areas.

Method: Multivariable logistic regression using EMR data to predict the GPs' judgement on patients' anticipated benefit from an extended consultation, as well as a thematic analysis of a focus group exploring GPs' clinical reasoning for this judgement were conducted. Internal validation was performed using 10-fold cross-validation. Multimorbidity was defined as the presence of ≥3 chronic conditions.

Results: In total, EMRs from 1032 patients were included in the analysis; of these, 352 (34.1%) were judged to have anticipated benefit. The model's cross-validated C-statistic was 0.72 (95% confidence interval = 0.70 to 0.75). Calibration was good. Presence of home visit(s) and history of myocardial infarction were associated with anticipated benefit. Thematic analysis revealed three dimensions feeding anticipated benefit: GPs' cause for concern, patients' mindset regarding their conditions, and balance between received care/expected care needed.

Conclusion: This algorithm may facilitate automated prioritisation, potentially avoiding the need for GPs to personally triage the whole practice population that has multimorbidity. However, external validation of the algorithm and evaluation of actual benefit of consultation is recommended before implementation.