Machine learning-based ensemble prediction model for the gamma passing rate of VMAT-SBRT plan.

Purpose: The purpose of this study was to accurately predict or classify the beam GPR with an ensemble model by using machine learning for SBRT(VMAT) plans.

Methods: A total of 128 SBRT VMAT plans with 330 arc beams were retrospectively selected, and 216 radiomics and 34 plan complexity features were calculated for each arc beam. Three models for GPR prediction and classification using support vector machine algorithm were as follows: (1) plan complexity feature-based model (plan model); (2) radiomics feature-based model (radiomics model); and (3) an ensemble model combining the two models (ensemble model). The prediction performance was evaluated by calculating the mean absolute error (MAE), root mean square error (RMSE), and Spearman's correlation coefficient (SC), and the classification performance was measured by calculating the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), accuracy, specificity, and sensitivity.

Results: The MAE, RMSE and SC at the 2 %/2 mm gamma criterion in the test dataset were 1.4 %, 2.57 %, and 0.563, respectively, for the plan model; 1.42 %, and 2.51 %, and 0.508, respectively, for the radiomics model; and 1.33 %, 2.49 %, and 0.611, respectively, for the ensemble model. The accuracy, specificity, sensitivity, and AUC at the 2 %/2 mm gamma criterion in the test dataset were 0.807, 0.824, 0.681, and 0.854, respectively, for the plan model; 0.860, 0.893, 0.624, and 0.877, respectively, for the radiomics model; and 0.852, 0.871, 0.710, and 0.896, respectively, for the ensemble model.

Conclusions: The ensemble model can improve the prediction and classification performance for the GPR of SBRT (VMAT).