Bioavailability (BA)-based risk assessment of soil heavy metals in provinces of China through the predictive BA-models.

The real biological effect is not generated by the total content of heavy metals (HMs), but rather by bioavailable content. A new bioavailability-based ecological risk assessment (BA-based ERA) framework was developed for deriving bioavailability-based soil quality criteria (BA-based SQC) and accurately assessing the ecological risk of soil HMs at a multi-regional scale in this study. Through the random forest (RF) models and BA-based ERA framework, the 217 BA-based SQC for HMs in 31 Chinese provinces were derived and the BA-based ERA was comprehensively assessed. This study found that bioavailable HMs extraction methods (BHEMs) and total HMs content play the predominant role in affecting HMs (As, Cd, Cr, Cu, Ni, Pb, and Zn) bioavailability by explaining 27.55-56.11% and 9.20-62.09% of the variation, respectively. The RF model had accurate and stable prediction ability for the bioavailability of soil HMs with the mean R and RMSE of 0.83 and 0.43 for the test set, respectively. The results of BA-based ERA showed that bioavailability could avoid the overestimation of ecological risks to some extent after reducing the uncertainty of soil differences. This study confirmed the feasibility of using bioavailability for ERA and will utilised to revise the soil environmental standards based on bioavailability for HMs.