Governance pathway for coastal eutrophication based on regime shifts in diatom-dinoflagellate composition of the Bohai and Baltic Seas.

Regime shifts in the diatom-dinoflagellate composition have occurred in the Baltic Sea (BS) and Bohai Sea (BHS) under eutrophication and have affected the entire coastal ecosystem, damaging the regulatory, provisioning, cultural, and supporting service functions of marine ecosystems. Therefore, finding a solution to restore the balance of phytoplankton community composition and mitigate eutrophication is of utmost importance. In this study, the Driver (per capita gross domestic product)-Pressure (terrestrial inputs)-State (seawater environmental parameters)-Impact (proportions of diatoms and dinoflagellates)-Response (eutrophication governance projects) framework served as a guide for our analysis of the causal relationship among various environmental components in the coastal system. The relevant data in BS and BHS spanning from the 1950s to the 2010s were collected and used to construct a diatom-dinoflagellate composition single index, which allowed us to identify the shifts in regimes (mutation points and phases) of the diatom-dinoflagellate composition and environmental factors using sequential t-test analysis. We also identified key environmental factors that moderated the diatom-dinoflagellate composition using redundancy analysis and analyzed the partial effects of the main environmental factors on the diatom-dinoflagellate composition using a generalized additive model. Finally, the regulation of the eutrophication governance investment on diatom-dinoflagellate composition was investigated. We found that (1) BS is a "time machine," with coastal eutrophication governance and regime shift of diatom-dinoflagellate composition and environmental factors two decades earlier than that in BHS; (2) in BS, the key moderation factor of diatom proportion is SiO-Si and those of dinoflagellates are sea surface salinity and N:P ratio; in BHS, the key moderation factors of diatom proportion are PO-P and Si:N ratio and those of dinoflagellate are dissolved inorganic nitrogen and N:P and Si:P ratios; (3) it is projected that BHS will enter its recovery phase from eutrophication after mid-2020s. In summary, the N/P/Si stoichiometric relationships should be given greater consideration, with the exception of the "dose-response" relationship in both sea areas. Our results indicate an urgent need for an improved mechanistic understanding of how phytoplankton biodiversity changes in response to changes in nutrient load and how we should ultimately deal with the challenges that arise.