Trends in the decapod crustacean community at the southernmost estuary of the Atlantic coast of Europe.

Climate change may enhance the establishment of introduced species, as well as the poleward shift in distribution of numerous species over decades. Long-term research and monitoring of an ecosystem at the southernmost point of the Atlantic coast of Europe should be an important priority in order to detect and understand trends in species composition and the related environmental changes. The Guadalquivir estuary (South West Spain) is more likely to suffer the exacerbated effects of climate change due to its location in the Mediterranean-climate zone. The long-term data set between 1997 and 2006 has allowed us to analyse the variability of the natural and anthropogenic stressors. The mean interannual dissimilarity of the estuarine fauna (Bray-Curtis dissimilarity index) has showed important differences throughout the years, and the species that most contributed to these differences were the exotic species capable of completing their life cycles. This long-term monitoring of the estuarine community has allowed us to anticipate future events and ecological risk assessment in European waters.